July in European Gas

July felt rather lacklustre for European Gas, with many people on the beach and many others not really participating.  For those that were, the month could be split into 3 distinct segments. 

The first half witnessed bullish price action with continued heat in Europe and Asia, a few LNG diversions, some Rehden capacity sold and various supply niggles.  The next 10 days saw the European heat finally gave way and so did the prices.  We nearly reached the April lows, before Tsunami warnings and the latest edition of the Trump show took us all the way back above 35 euros.

The 1st August bought a double-barrelled bonus for Yogi, with more Trump Tariffs, coupled with a worrying US jobs report ensuring the entire complex got an absolute shoeing to finish the week. 

As always the devil in the detail and the 25% Russian energy/weapons tax imposed on India was seen by many as a watered-down version of the 100% threat from the week before.

It feels very much that the overall mood is bearish, but with Donald Trump’s deadline on Russia due any day, continued heat lingering around Asia and more bad EDF nuke news over the weekend, prices continue to hold their ground for now.